Japan’s Climate Security Outlook: International Efforts For Domestic Energy and Economic Stability

Executive Summary

Japan faces significant climate-related risks that threaten its public health, economic stability, and regional security. As a disaster-prone island nation located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, Japan regularly experiences typhoons, earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis. Between 2020 and 2023, nearly 500 individuals were reported missing or killed in natural disasters. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake alone resulted in over 22,500 deaths and caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster, underscoring the urgency for climate resilience.

Climate change impacts exacerbate food and water insecurity in Japan. Declining agricultural engagement, a shrinking farming workforce, and supply chain vulnerabilities from at-risk developing nations increase climate-related risks. Over 17% of Japan’s imports come from countries with high climate risks, such as Vietnam and Thailand, highlighting interdependencies that may disrupt trade and global stability. Rising sea levels and migration trends in Southeast Asia could further destabilize regional politics, negatively impacting Japan’s economy and security.

While Japan has implemented forward-thinking policies like the Kyoto Initiative and invested in green technologies, its reliance on “clean coal” and slow progress toward decarbonization hinder its 2030 emission reduction targets of a 46% decrease. However, renewed focus on nuclear energy, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), reflects Japan’s efforts to diversify energy sources post-Fukushima.

To bolster resilience, Japan must scale renewable energy investments, deepen regional cooperation, and promote climate adaptation strategies. Strengthened partnerships with China and Southeast Asian nations are also critical to addressing shared climate challenges and ensuring long-term stability.

Introduction

While climate change and its implications concern experts and advocates in the west; in the east, risks related to climate change are just as significant, if not more so, due to the larger number of island nations in Oceania, agrarian cultures in southeast Asia such as Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, etc, and the interdependence of these countries upon each other for public health, political stability, and economic prosperity. A country that is at the forefront of climate security efforts in the region is also one that may be one of the most at risk to climate-related implications in the future is Japan, which I’ll be discussing in this report.

Natural Disasters

The island nation of Japan is no stranger to climate related disasters being located along the Pacific earthquake belt and the Ring of Fire, an area where several tectonic plates meet. Destructive events such as typhoons, heavy rain, flooding, earthquakes, landslides, river levee breaks, and tsunamis are constant threats for residents and can have prominent effects on public safety, food security and has resulted in many reported missing or killed in natural disasters every year. In the timespan of 2020 to 2023, nearly 500 people have been reported missing or killed due to natural disasters.

To illustrate even further the looming threat of even more major incidents, following the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, the most powerful earthquake ever recorded in Japan, the death/missing toll reached 22,585 people, destroying many Japanese cities and causing a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Fukushima Prefecture.[1] 

Food Insecurity and Water Insecurity

Even beyond death tolls, the environmental instability of Japan can have other, slightly more indirect impacts on public health in Japan. Food insecurity for instance has become a growing risk in recent years. According to a government report released this year, the number of people in Japan who mainly engage in agriculture was around 1.16 million in 2023, down by more than half from 2.4 million in 2000. Additionally, only around 20% were under 60 years old, highlighting not only Japan’s generational divide in career aspirations but also the need for farmers to integrate more advanced technology into the industry to attract talent and innovation. The report also stated that more than 90 percent of Japan’s agricultural products, including forestry and fishery products, were transported by truck in 2023 underscoring the risks associated with Japan’s current supply chain operations. However, more positively, the report also stated that after the 2023 fiscal year, Japan had incorporated more usage of trains and ships.[2] 

There are also concerns that climate risks in other countries that Japan imports from could severely impact food security and supply chain stability. The Center for Climate Security examined Japan’s import stability, finding that 17% of Japanese imports come from nations with medium or high climate security risks, excluding China, which if were to include would drive the rate much higher. Countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malysia, Indonesia and other nations in the Asian-pacific region are both exporters of goods that Japan relies on and are significant proportions of the regions GDP, which if impacted by climate related-factors could rile the populations of these countries into civil unrest and protests. The report calls this process the ‘globalization of climate hazards’ as with the civic unrest occurring in these at-risk countries, economic stability and specific international trade supply chains could become compromised, impacted the entire global economy.[3] While many Asian cities continue to grow in population in countries like Singapore, China, Indonesia and others, they increase their chances to be severely impacted by this climate hazard globalization.

Migration and Human Displacement

               While migration can be an effective option for those who are experiencing environmental hazards, it also has the possibility of forcing regions against themselves in competition for resources, leading to regional instability. Experts say that migration is very likely in southeast Asia, as sea levels rise and populations grow, pushing those residing in climate-sensitive areas to move to urban centers. This trend only furthers political and social tensions as new groups moving into established areas can create unrest, as governments work to either accommodate or limit the influx of migrants into their jurisdictions. This instability could further harm Japanese trade and even cause political instability in their own country as trading partners falter and resource scarcity increases in Japan.

Chinese Trade and Stability

China is Japan’s largest trading partner in electronics and automotives and also represents a growing percentage of Japan’s imports, rising to around 23% of Japanese imports in 2018. While China has been one of the largest investors into green-energy solutions to mitigate climate change and reverse their own large carbon footprint, there is a pertinent issue in their policy goals. China mainly focuses their efforts on climate change reversal and mitigation and neglects policymaking focused on adapting to climate change. The Chinese government has identified it will take years and billions in further investment to effectively implement adaptation strategies such as freshwater management and adaptive agricultural cropping systems. China already suffers from freshwater scarcity, as the country houses 22% of the global population but holds only 7% of the world’s freshwater supply. Chinese coastal megacities may also be at risk from flooding, further eroding China’s national security and risking Japanese dependence on their exports and imports.[4]

Government Climate Security Action

Japan has issued a number of climate related initiatives and policies, one of which being the Kyoto Initiative that states Japan will continue to contribute training programs, ODA (official development assistance) loans, and distribute clean energy technologies and climate mitigation best practices to developing nations. The distribution of clean energy technologies usually occurs as a part of CDMs or Clean Development Mechanisms, which is an arrangement for international cooperation that provides incentives for companies in developed nations to diffuse sophisticated technologies to developing countries. Due to CDM projects regularly taking a large amount of time for approval and often facing rejection, Japan has established a “Future CDM Committee” with other countries including Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, India, and the Netherlands to promote CDM projects and work on institutional reform. Japan has also committed to providing the IEA, or International Energy Agency, with additional funding in order to the IEA to assess sector-by-sector analysis of energy efficiency and promote research in related fields.[5]

While Japan has been forward thinking in regard to green international development, it is not without controversy in addressing climate change. According to climateactiontracker.org, Japan is set to miss its 2030 target of reducing carbon emissions by 46%, citing Japan’s focus more on energy security and economic development over decarbonization efforts. According to the site, Japan’s latest green transformation strategy, the GX Basic Policy, promotes the development of “clean coal” over investment in renewable energy sources.[6]

Japan has also unveiled a new plan to build new generation nuclear reactors, as apart of the GX Basic Policy. After the 2011 earthquake, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, which scaled at a level 7 (major accident) on the International Nuclear Event Scale, (for context, the Chernobyl disaster also scored a 7) public sentiment in Japan around nuclear energy nosedived. However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the energy panic surrounding, approval has been steadily rising and in 2023, a majority of Japan favored restarting the existing reactor fleet. As of fiscal year 2022, only 5.6% of Japan’s energy was produced by nuclear plants, a massive drop-off from pre-2011 levels of over 25%.[7]

Policy Recommendations

The Japanese government is currently constructing their 2035 NDC and Basic Energy Plan, which is effectively the Japanese government’s overarching climate plan. In this document, Japanese officials must prioritize upscaling their renewable energy investment, cut out clean coal from their long-term energy security plans and continue investment into building new generation nuclear power plants such as Small Modular Reactors or SMRs.

The Japanese government should also prioritize inviting more countries to participate in their “Future CDM Committee” to bolster climate security efforts in developing nations that do not have the resources to build the technology, infrastructure, warning systems, and other risk-mitigation systems. Due to Japan’s interdependence on so many east-Asian countries for trade, food security, and economic security, Japan should seek to strengthen relations with its neighbors including China. Japan should seek to influence China to invest more heavily into climate-change adaptation technologies, infrastructures and systems.

Conclusion

Overall, while Japan is lagging behind some of the most forward countries, such as those in northern and eastern Europe on green technology development and investment, it has made significant strides helping to develop at-risk countries in southeast Asia, and continues to lead on this front. While nuclear energy is also a controversial topic for many, Japan’s boldness in returning to the operation and construction of nuclear power plants shows a willingness to one-day leave behind fossil fuels and transition completely to sustainability and green energy.

Works Cited

-            Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. The Kyoto Initiative. Government of Japan, https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/environment/warm/cop/initiative.pdf.

-            Yong, Anthony. "Japan’s Economic Revitalization Requires Nuclear Energy." Atlantic Council, 28 June 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/japans-economic-revitalization-requires-nuclear-energy/.

-            Japan Center for a Sustainable Environment and Society (JACSES). "Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)." JACSES, https://jacses.org/en/climate/CDM.htm.

-            The Center for Climate and Security. "Japanese Industry in an Unstable Climate: Reducing Exposure to the Security Implications of Climate Change." The Center for Climate and Security, https://climateandsecurity.org/japanese-industry-in-an-unstable-climate-reducing-exposure-to-the-security-implications-of-climate-change-2/.

-            Klein, Catharina. “Topic: Natural Disasters in Japan.” Statista, www.statista.com/topics/7363/natural-disasters-in-japan/#:~:text=In%20Japan%2C%20natural%20disasters%20occur,by%20natural%20disasters%20every%20year.  

-            Kyodo News. "Climate Change, Fewer Farmers Jeopardize Japan's Food Security: Report." Kyodo News, 24 May 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/05/ad83b8d3f694-climate-change-fewer-farmers-jeopardize-japan-food-security-report.html.

-            Climate Action Tracker. "Japan." Climate Action Tracker, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/.

[1] Klein, Catharina. “Topic: Natural Disasters in Japan.” Statista, www.statista.com/topics/7363/natural-disasters-in-japan/#:~:text=In%20Japan%2C%20natural%20disasters%20occur,by%20natural%20disasters%20every%20year.  

[2] Kyodo News. "Climate Change, Fewer Farmers Jeopardize Japan's Food Security: Report." Kyodo News, 24 May 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/05/ad83b8d3f694-climate-change-fewer-farmers-jeopardize-japan-food-security-report.html.

[3] The Center for Climate and Security. "Japanese Industry in an Unstable Climate: Reducing Exposure to the Security Implications of Climate Change." The Center for Climate and Security, https://climateandsecurity.org/japanese-industry-in-an-unstable-climate-reducing-exposure-to-the-security-implications-of-climate-change-2/.

[4] The Center for Climate and Security. "Japanese Industry in an Unstable Climate: Reducing Exposure to the Security Implications of Climate Change." The Center for Climate and Security, https://climateandsecurity.org/japanese-industry-in-an-unstable-climate-reducing-exposure-to-the-security-implications-of-climate-change-2/.

[5] Japan Center for a Sustainable Environment and Society (JACSES). "Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)." JACSES, https://jacses.org/en/climate/CDM.htm.

[6] Climate Action Tracker. "Japan." Climate Action Tracker, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/japan/.

[7] Yong, Anthony. "Japan’s Economic Revitalization Requires Nuclear Energy." Atlantic Council, 28 June 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/japans-economic-revitalization-requires-nuclear-energy/.